Misconception: prediction markets are just gambling — why outcome probabilities, volume, and liquidity pools tell a different story
Many traders assume prediction markets are an entertainment-grade gamble: pick an outcome, hope you win, and watch returns drift. That simplification misses the core mechanism that makes these platforms valuable to serious traders and information seekers. In practice, markets like Polymarket convert qualitative uncertainty into quantitative outcome probabilities, and those probabilities are shaped not by […]
